The future of mobility. How transportation technology and social trends are creating a new business ecosystem
Will technological advances and shifts in social attitudes lead to our no longer owning or driving vehicles? The global auto industry's transformation has far-reaching implications for how we move from point A to point B and, in turn, affects carmakers, energy companies, insurers, health care, government funding, and more. Value shifts as a new ecosystem of mobility emerges.
In the four futures of the mobility ecosystem, sources of value shift profoundly. With this evolution toward a new ecosystem still taking shape, we want to share some reflections on the strategic and operational implications for legacy incumbents, extended industry participants, and disrupters as they weigh their future direction. Specifically:
- Industries rise and fall. Cycles take long periods to play out, but eventually change occurs.
- The potential system benefits and fundamental economics of the disrupter vision are compelling.
- There is a pathway for the existing extended auto industry to lead the transition to the future of personal mobility, but it will require fundamental and expeditious business-model change. Competing effectively in the future mobility ecosystem requires building new and different capabilities. Everyone in today’s extended automotive sector needs to reassess how they will operate and create value while the four states coexist and in the longer term, when autonomous and shared mobility become more mainstream.
- The insiders and disrupters need each other.Unquestionably, fierce competition will characterize the commercial environment around personal mobility. Yet, despite their wariness and differing outlooks and perspectives, automotive incumbents and challenging new entrants will together make up a new ecosystem with high levels of interdependency, mutualism, and symbiosis.
- Profound disruption will extend far past the automotive industry. Every aspect of the modern economy based on the assumption of human-driven, personally owned vehicles will be challenged. Each company in this new ecosystem will have to determine where to play and how to win. As in any time of large-scale transformation, we can expect to see new players, with differentiated capabilities, emerge and change the fundamental dynamics of where and how value is created. Ultimately, the market, in its relentless quest for higher performance at lower cost, will decide who wins and who loses.
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